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Forecast Earnings

In partnership with

ViaMar AS logo

ViaMar AS logo

VesselsValue provides sector level earnings forecasts as part of its partnership with ViaMar AS.

Overview

VesselsValue provides sector level earnings forecasts as part of its partnership with ViaMar AS.

Forecasted earnings are provided for a range of ship types within the Bulker, Tanker, Container and LPG sectors. For each ship type forecasted earnings are provided for a ten ear old, non-scrubber fitted vessel of standard size at quarterly intervals for a four year forward assessment. Forecast earnings are given on a spot basis for Bulkers, Tankers and LPG and on a short TC basis for Containers.

Methodology

The ViaMar earnings forecasts stem from comprehensive, segment specific fundamental supply and demand analysis of the Bulker, Tanker, Container and LPG shipping markets. The top down approach starts out with a macroeconomic perspective and filters down to forecasts for vessel earnings.

Multiple factors are considered to produce a measure of the supply and demand balance:

  • Evaluation of the business environment, incorporating views on GDP developments, industrial production, oil price developments, governments’ economic policies and goals.

  • Upstream changes to production capacity for dry and liquid commodities. Export and import developments, uncovering local imbalances inducing trade shifts.

  • Demand developments for seaborne trade in key importing regions reflected in ton-mile
    expressions. ViaMar continuously processes trade data for key commodities, as forecasts
    are built.

  • Supply developments affecting the deadweight, cbm, teu carrying capacity of the fleet, including variables influencing scrapping, new ordering, deliveries, speed, congestion, lay-up, regulations, slippage and cancellations.

  • The supply and demand balance is used to produce a forecasted fleet utilization rate.

A regression analysis is performed on the historic relationship between the utilization rate and data series of spot earnings. Output from regression analysis is used to forecast earnings rates for the next four years.

Daily or monthly rates are defined as time charter equivalents earnings (TCE), for non scrubber fitted modern to 10-year-old vessels.

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Figure 1. Forecast earnings for an example vessel including two years of historical rates.

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